Democratic two-party share of the top countywide race in each August county
general. 2018, 2022 and 2026 are the mayor's race; 2020 and 2024 have no mayor on the ballot, so
they show county law director — a different office with different candidates, which is why the
line is a lean indicator and not a like-for-like series.
The 2,178
2,178 net votes
What a Democrat needed to win Knox County in 2026 — 2.47 points of two-party share
Three levers move that number, and they cost different
things. Turning out more of an existing base is organizing. Moving a battleground precinct is
persuasion. Trimming a loss in hostile territory is showing up somewhere you were not expected.
Set each one and watch the county flip or hold.
Turn out the base
More votes from precincts already 55%+ Democratic, at their current lean.
+0% turnout+0 net
Win the battlegrounds
Points of two-party share gained in precincts between 45% and 55%.
+0.0 pts+0 net
Trim the red
Points gained everywhere below 45% — the loss you cut rather than the race you win.
+0.0 pts+0 net
Where the votes actually are
Every precinct ranked by how many net votes one point of Democratic share is worth
there — which is simply a function of size. The swing column is what the precinct did between 2022
and 2026, the best available evidence of whether that point is gettable. Click any row to isolate
it on the map.